Climate change made extreme rainfall heavier and more likely to happen during several back-to-back storms earlier this year in Madagascar, Malawi and Mozambique, according to rapid attribution analysis by an international team of leading climate scientists.

While the analysis shows that climate change made the eventsworse, the scientists were not able to quantify exactly how much climate change influenced the event due to a shortage of high quality weather observations available for this part of Africa.

In early 2022, Southeast Africa was hit by three tropical cyclones and two tropical storms in just six weeks.

Tropical Storm Ana, in late January, was followed by Tropical Cyclone Batsirai, which made landfall in Madagascar on 5 February. Over the next few weeks, the region was hit by Tropical Storm Dumako and Tropical Cyclones Emnati and Gombe.

The consecutive storms left people with little time to react. Madagascar, Malawi and Mozambique were the worst-hit countries, with more than a million people affected by extreme rainfall and floods, and 230 reported deaths.

To evaluate the role of climate change on the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall during the storms, the scientists analysed weather observations and computer simulations to compare the climate as it is today, after about 1.2°C of global warming since the late 1800s, with the climate of the past, following peer-reviewed methods.

The analysis focused on rainfall, which caused widespread flooding, over the wettest three-day periods in two regions: Madagascar, where cyclone Batsirai caused major damage, and an area over Malawi and Mozambique most affected by Tropical Storm Ana.

In both cases, the results show that rainfall associated with the storms was made more intense by climate change and that episodes of extreme rainfall such as these have become more frequent.

The finding is consistent with scientific understanding of how climate change, caused by human greenhouse gas emissions, influences heavy rainfall. As the atmosphere becomes warmer it accumulates more water, increasing the risk of downpours. With further greenhouse gas emissions and continued temperature increases such heavy rainfall episodes will become even more common.

While the analysis shows that climate change made the events more intense and damaging, the precise contribution of climate change to the event could not be quantified, due to the absence of comprehensive historical records of rainfall in the region.

Of 23 weather stations in the affected area in Mozambique, only four had relatively complete records going back to 1981. In Madagascar and Malawi there were no weather stations with suitable data for the study.

In many other parts of the world where more comprehensive weather station data is available, scientists have been able to quantify the influence of climate change on particular extreme events. Increased investment in weather stations in Africa would enable a more precise estimate of the impact of rising greenhouse gas concentrations on the continent.

The study was conducted by 22 researchers as part of the World Weather Attribution group, including scientists from universities and meteorological agencies in France, Madagascar, Mozambique, the Netherlands, New Zealand, South Africa, the UK and the US

Climate change made extreme rainfall heavier and more likely to happen during several back-to-back storms earlier this year in Madagascar, Malawi and Mozambique, according to rapid attribution analysis by an international team of leading climate scientists.

While the analysis shows that climate change made the eventsworse, the scientists were not able to quantify exactly how much climate change influenced the event due to a shortage of high quality weather observations available for this part of Africa.

In early 2022, Southeast Africa was hit by three tropical cyclones and two tropical storms in just six weeks.

Tropical Storm Ana, in late January, was followed by Tropical Cyclone Batsirai, which made landfall in Madagascar on 5 February. Over the next few weeks, the region was hit by Tropical Storm Dumako and Tropical Cyclones Emnati and Gombe.

The consecutive storms left people with little time to react. Madagascar, Malawi and Mozambique were the worst-hit countries, with more than a million people affected by extreme rainfall and floods, and 230 reported deaths.

To evaluate the role of climate change on the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall during the storms, the scientists analysed weather observations and computer simulations to compare the climate as it is today, after about 1.2°C of global warming since the late 1800s, with the climate of the past, following peer-reviewed methods.

The analysis focused on rainfall, which caused widespread flooding, over the wettest three-day periods in two regions: Madagascar, where cyclone Batsirai caused major damage, and an area over Malawi and Mozambique most affected by Tropical Storm Ana.

In both cases, the results show that rainfall associated with the storms was made more intense by climate change and that episodes of extreme rainfall such as these have become more frequent.

The finding is consistent with scientific understanding of how climate change, caused by human greenhouse gas emissions, influences heavy rainfall. As the atmosphere becomes warmer it accumulates more water, increasing the risk of downpours. With further greenhouse gas emissions and continued temperature increases such heavy rainfall episodes will become even more common.

While the analysis shows that climate change made the events more intense and damaging, the precise contribution of climate change to the event could not be quantified, due to the absence of comprehensive historical records of rainfall in the region.

Of 23 weather stations in the affected area in Mozambique, only four had relatively complete records going back to 1981. In Madagascar and Malawi there were no weather stations with suitable data for the study.

In many other parts of the world where more comprehensive weather station data is available, scientists have been able to quantify the influence of climate change on particular extreme events. Increased investment in weather stations in Africa would enable a more precise estimate of the impact of rising greenhouse gas concentrations on the continent.

The study was conducted by 22 researchers as part of the World Weather Attribution group, including scientists from universities and meteorological agencies in France, Madagascar, Mozambique, the Netherlands, New Zealand, South Africa, the UK and the US

NAIROBI, Kenya (PAMACC News) - A new report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released on April 4, 2022 shows that accelerated international cooperation on finance to support low income countries is a critical enabler of a low-carbon and just transition.

The report, Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change points out that scaled-up public grants for adaptation and mitigation and funding for low-income and vulnerable regions, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, may have the highest returns. 

According to Celine Guivarch, one of the lead authors, the report shows that reducing emissions at the speed and scale required to limit warming to two degrees or below implies deep economic changes that could increase inequality between and within countries. “But policies can be designed to avoid increasing or even decrease economic inequality and poverty. This entails broadening access to clean technologies and international finance. In applying just transition principles to integrate considerations of equity and justice into policies at all scales and enable accelerated mitigation action.”

Key options according to the report include: Increased public finance flows from developed to developing countries beyond  USD100 billion-a-year; shifting from a direct lending modality towards public guarantees to reduce risks and greatly leverage private flows at lower cost; local capital markets development; and, changing  the enabling operational definitions.

According to Brett Cohen, one of the coordinating lead authors, the report recognizes that mitigation must be region and context specific. So not all actions are applicable everywhere. Furthermore, it highlights the multiple sustainable development benefits from mitigation, as well as the trade-offs that need to be considered. Understanding and accounting for these will help to build the support base for mitigation action.

He further noted that the report considers mitigation from a system point of view so as to maximise various interactions to optimize benefits. For instance, if we are to change to clean cooking at household level, it is best if this is achieved through renewable energy. Further, mitigation efforts need to look at how various sectors and agendas such as the sustainable development goals complement each other

On the role of Africa in mitigation, Cohen believes that it is more important to ensure low emissions development trajectories, to ensure that development leapfrogs the high emissions historically found in developed countries. The report explores the concept of sustainable development pathways, demonstrating that all decisions taken along the development trajectory have implications for the emissions intensity for economies. 

The authors also found that agriculture, forestry, and other land use can provide large-scale emissions reductions and also remove and store carbon dioxide at scale.

“Agriculture, forestry, and other land use contribute 22% of global emissions,” said Mercedes Bustamante the lead author: Forest conservation, nature-based solutions, options for developing countries.

This sector, according to Bustamante, can not only provide large-scale reductions of emissions but can also remove and store CO2 at scale.

She observed that the knowledge and experience of Indigenous Peoples and local communities are crucial for land-based mitigation. That mainstreaming these insights relies on governance that emphasizes integrated land use planning and management framed by Sustainable Development Goals.

“Well-designed land-based mitigation options to remove carbon can also benefit biodiversity and ecosystems, help us adapt to climate change, secure livelihoods, improve food and water security. Options include protecting and restoring natural ecosystems such as forests, peatlands, wetlands, savannas, and grasslands,” said the author.

Laura Diaz Anadon, another lead author who focused on Policies & renewable energy said that evidence reviewed in the report showed that while a lot of the decarbonization policies that have been put in place around the world have had a positive impact on innovation, technology, deployment and environmental outcomes.

“In some cases, they have also had a short-term negative impact on vulnerable groups, low-income groups, and in some cases that they have favored, for example, large firms over small firms. We have also found that this is something that can be avoided by designing policies in a different way or putting in place complementary policies,” said Anadon.

According to Nokuthula Dube, the IPCC Lead Author, Chapter 15 on Investment and Finance, the report highlights the importance of mobilizing diverse sources of capital from both local and international sources in tackling climate change and sustainable development.

“Our assessment points to accelerated international co-operation on finance as a critical enabler of a low carbon and just transition. Scaled-up public grants in the funding to tackle climate change for low-income and vulnerable regions, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, may have the highest returns.

Meeting the $100 billion UNFCCC Copenhagen Accord on a grant-equivalent basis could support Paris aligned NDCs (national plans) integrate policies on COVID-19 pandemic recovery, climate action, sustainable development, just transition and equity in the process harnessing co-benefits towards hidden energy poverty such as clean-cooking. Close to 3 billion people in Africa and developing Asia have no access to clean cooking energy.”

NAIROBI, Kenya (PAMACC News) - A new report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released on April 4, 2022 shows that accelerated international cooperation on finance to support low income countries is a critical enabler of a low-carbon and just transition.

The report, Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change points out that scaled-up public grants for adaptation and mitigation and funding for low-income and vulnerable regions, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, may have the highest returns. 

According to Celine Guivarch, one of the lead authors, the report shows that reducing emissions at the speed and scale required to limit warming to two degrees or below implies deep economic changes that could increase inequality between and within countries. “But policies can be designed to avoid increasing or even decrease economic inequality and poverty. This entails broadening access to clean technologies and international finance. In applying just transition principles to integrate considerations of equity and justice into policies at all scales and enable accelerated mitigation action.”

Key options according to the report include: Increased public finance flows from developed to developing countries beyond  USD100 billion-a-year; shifting from a direct lending modality towards public guarantees to reduce risks and greatly leverage private flows at lower cost; local capital markets development; and, changing  the enabling operational definitions.

According to Brett Cohen, one of the coordinating lead authors, the report recognizes that mitigation must be region and context specific. So not all actions are applicable everywhere. Furthermore, it highlights the multiple sustainable development benefits from mitigation, as well as the trade-offs that need to be considered. Understanding and accounting for these will help to build the support base for mitigation action.

He further noted that the report considers mitigation from a system point of view so as to maximise various interactions to optimize benefits. For instance, if we are to change to clean cooking at household level, it is best if this is achieved through renewable energy. Further, mitigation efforts need to look at how various sectors and agendas such as the sustainable development goals complement each other

On the role of Africa in mitigation, Cohen believes that it is more important to ensure low emissions development trajectories, to ensure that development leapfrogs the high emissions historically found in developed countries. The report explores the concept of sustainable development pathways, demonstrating that all decisions taken along the development trajectory have implications for the emissions intensity for economies. 

The authors also found that agriculture, forestry, and other land use can provide large-scale emissions reductions and also remove and store carbon dioxide at scale.

“Agriculture, forestry, and other land use contribute 22% of global emissions,” said Mercedes Bustamante the lead author: Forest conservation, nature-based solutions, options for developing countries.

This sector, according to Bustamante, can not only provide large-scale reductions of emissions but can also remove and store CO2 at scale.

She observed that the knowledge and experience of Indigenous Peoples and local communities are crucial for land-based mitigation. That mainstreaming these insights relies on governance that emphasizes integrated land use planning and management framed by Sustainable Development Goals.

“Well-designed land-based mitigation options to remove carbon can also benefit biodiversity and ecosystems, help us adapt to climate change, secure livelihoods, improve food and water security. Options include protecting and restoring natural ecosystems such as forests, peatlands, wetlands, savannas, and grasslands,” said the author.

Laura Diaz Anadon, another lead author who focused on Policies & renewable energy said that evidence reviewed in the report showed that while a lot of the decarbonization policies that have been put in place around the world have had a positive impact on innovation, technology, deployment and environmental outcomes.

“In some cases, they have also had a short-term negative impact on vulnerable groups, low-income groups, and in some cases that they have favored, for example, large firms over small firms. We have also found that this is something that can be avoided by designing policies in a different way or putting in place complementary policies,” said Anadon.

According to Nokuthula Dube, the IPCC Lead Author, Chapter 15 on Investment and Finance, the report highlights the importance of mobilizing diverse sources of capital from both local and international sources in tackling climate change and sustainable development.

“Our assessment points to accelerated international co-operation on finance as a critical enabler of a low carbon and just transition. Scaled-up public grants in the funding to tackle climate change for low-income and vulnerable regions, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, may have the highest returns.

Meeting the $100 billion UNFCCC Copenhagen Accord on a grant-equivalent basis could support Paris aligned NDCs (national plans) integrate policies on COVID-19 pandemic recovery, climate action, sustainable development, just transition and equity in the process harnessing co-benefits towards hidden energy poverty such as clean-cooking. Close to 3 billion people in Africa and developing Asia have no access to clean cooking energy.”