MARAKECH, Morocco (PAMACC News) - Africa's climate is one of the least-researched and poorly understood, but a new report provides reliable scientific information about the continent's changing climate, equipping decision-makers to plan better.

Africa's Climate: Helping decision-makers make sense of climate information is the first major programme-wide report to emerge from Future Climate for Africa (FCFA). FCFA comprises five major research projects to develop better climate information for Africa and to test how the new information could be used in decision-making, with potential benefit for millions of affected Africans.

African countries are facing many challenges in achievement of their development goals, which may be hampered by the impact of climate change," said Wilfried Pokam Mba of University of Yaounde, a FCFA researcher in Cameroon adding that in this context, fulfilment of development efforts over the continent requires reliable climate information.

"FCFA provides high quality climate information to help governments and businesses make more climate-resilient investments." This report, he says, is one such example of information being made available to help guide policy-makers, scientists and practitioners on climate change issues affecting the continent," said Sam Bickersteth, Chief Executive of the Climate and Development Knowledge Network, which acts as the 'knowledge hub' for the FCFA programme.

He added, "It is hoped that decision-makers can steer the continent's infrastructure and development plans in a direction that can capitalise on the opportunities presented by climate change in future, while offsetting the potential ill effects."

Written by some 40 leading experts, the report presents an Africa-wide overview of climate trends, and is distilled into 15 fact-sheets that are tailored for specific sub-regions and countries. The report captures the current state of knowledge, and explores the 'burning scientific questions' that still need to be answered. FCFA's five research teams will be delivering many of these answers in the next three years, to 2019.

Some of the key findings are that climate modelling indicates that east Africa is expected to warm in the next five to 40 years, although changes in rainfall are much less certain and that extreme events (floods, droughts, heatwaves, and so on) are expected to change and in most cases increase into the future.

The region is severely understudied, because of a lack of scientific observation data, such as that from weather stations.

Southern African economies are exposed to weather and climate vulnerabilities, particularly through sectors such as agriculture, energy, and water management. It follows that the supply of essential resources are all extremely at risk as the climate becomes more changeable and extreme.

Most government departments are planning according to a three- to five-year time horizon, while the climate projections are based on decades-longer timeframes, such as looking to 2050 and beyond.

Applying past data to the future, which is also used by other ministries, is potentially problematic as it assumes that the future climate will mirror the past, which may not be the case for projected climate change.

Although there is uncertainty associated with the future climate projections, climate change will have significant economic impacts across Africa.
Future climate change is likely to lead to new risks: the negative impacts seen from today's climate variability are likely to become worse.
While there is often uncertainty in climate projections, this should not be a reason for inaction.

 "This report provides a synthesis of our current state of knowledge and identifies where further multi-disciplinary research like FCFA is needed," Chris Taylor of the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (UK).

He added, The impacts of climate change in Africa will affect lives across the whole world," said John Marsham, University of Leeds. "This report is an important first step for the FCFA programme. It addresses the urgent need to both improve climate change predictions for Africa, and to better use those predictions for decision-making."

Catherine Senior of the UK Met Office said the report describes the urgent need for climate models to provide more robust projections of future climate change over the African continent. "By applying an 'Africa lens' to developing climate models, we can speed up the rate of progress to deliver more confident projections for decision-makers to use," she said.

Victor Indasi at the Climate Systems Analysis Group (CSAG) at the University of Cape Town said Africa is the most vulnerable continent to climate variability and change mainly due to its low adaptive capacity. "This FCFA report is therefore a must-read for everyone working on the continent especially within climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, water and energy," he said.

MARRAKECH, Morocco (PAMACC News) - Security experts have called on world leaders to address climate risk in their national, regional and international security planning.

Speaking at UN climate change conference in Marrakech in Morocco, they noted that climate change is already contributing to social upheaval and even violent conflict by making bad situations worse.

"It places stress on water, food and energy resources. It interacts with existing stresses like poverty, marginalisation, ethnic strife, resource stress and religious differences to drive instability. As competition for already scarce resources increases, climate change could halt or even reverse peace and development gains made over the past decade," said Retired Admiral Chris Barrie, Royal Australian Navy Honorary Professor, Strategic and Defence Studies
Centre, Australian National University.

Brigadier General Stephen A. Cheney of the US said climate change promises to make many of the complex crises the world currently facesmuch harder to solve. "Unchecked, the effects of a warming climate will force people from their homes, destabilise societies and markets, create new sources of social and political tension, and even contribute to state fragility and failure. All of this can providea vacuum for extremist groups to thrive," he said.

Retired US Marine Corps Former Inspector General and CEO, The American Security Project noted that climate change increases in disasters will place additional strain on military and civil response capabilities – often the first responders. Overstretched governments, militaries and
humanitarian teams will struggle to respond to supercharged natural disasters. "Extreme disasters provide an additional, preventable risk that could drive further fragility and conflict in vulnerable regions, and make existing conflicts harder to stabilise," he said.

Nick Mabey, Co-Founding Director and Chief Executive E3G, United Kingdom called for integration of climate risk across the whole of government and the holistic management of crises as this will help maintain stability in the face of the worsening impacts of climate change and ongoing security challenges, and can help protect and improve people's safety, health and livelihoods.

Dan Smith, Director Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said geopolitical dynamics may change and domestic contexts may shift, but robust security within nations, across borders, and around the world is impossible without building climate resilience, and incorporating climate risk into military operations, tactics, strategy and training.

"Addressing climate security risks in alliances and major international forums is essential: in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the African Union, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the Organization of American States, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation and the UN Security Council, as well as building on the efforts of the G7 foreign ministers through the A New Climate for Peace project," he said.
Retired Lieutenant General Balananda Sharma, Royal Nepalese Army called on world leaders to build on the exemplary international action on climate change achieved in 2015. "We must think beyond energy policy, and integrate climate risk into national, regional and international security planning in a way that is commensurate with the risks," he said.

The experts belong to the Climate Security Working Group-International, an international forum of security experts and professionals focused on sharing information and best practices regarding the international security risks of climate change, and developing policies for addressing those risks.

MARRAKECH, Morocco (PAMACC News) - Security experts have called on world leaders to address climate risk in their national, regional and international security planning.

Speaking at UN climate change conference in Marrakech in Morocco, they noted that climate change is already contributing to social upheaval and even violent conflict by making bad situations worse.

"It places stress on water, food and energy resources. It interacts with existing stresses like poverty, marginalisation, ethnic strife, resource stress and religious differences to drive instability. As competition for already scarce resources increases, climate change could halt or even reverse peace and development gains made over the past decade," said Retired Admiral Chris Barrie, Royal Australian Navy Honorary Professor, Strategic and Defence Studies
Centre, Australian National University.

Brigadier General Stephen A. Cheney of the US said climate change promises to make many of the complex crises the world currently facesmuch harder to solve. "Unchecked, the effects of a warming climate will force people from their homes, destabilise societies and markets, create new sources of social and political tension, and even contribute to state fragility and failure. All of this can providea vacuum for extremist groups to thrive," he said.

Retired US Marine Corps Former Inspector General and CEO, The American Security Project noted that climate change increases in disasters will place additional strain on military and civil response capabilities – often the first responders. Overstretched governments, militaries and
humanitarian teams will struggle to respond to supercharged natural disasters. "Extreme disasters provide an additional, preventable risk that could drive further fragility and conflict in vulnerable regions, and make existing conflicts harder to stabilise," he said.

Nick Mabey, Co-Founding Director and Chief Executive E3G, United Kingdom called for integration of climate risk across the whole of government and the holistic management of crises as this will help maintain stability in the face of the worsening impacts of climate change and ongoing security challenges, and can help protect and improve people's safety, health and livelihoods.

Dan Smith, Director Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said geopolitical dynamics may change and domestic contexts may shift, but robust security within nations, across borders, and around the world is impossible without building climate resilience, and incorporating climate risk into military operations, tactics, strategy and training.

"Addressing climate security risks in alliances and major international forums is essential: in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the African Union, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the Organization of American States, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation and the UN Security Council, as well as building on the efforts of the G7 foreign ministers through the A New Climate for Peace project," he said.
Retired Lieutenant General Balananda Sharma, Royal Nepalese Army called on world leaders to build on the exemplary international action on climate change achieved in 2015. "We must think beyond energy policy, and integrate climate risk into national, regional and international security planning in a way that is commensurate with the risks," he said.

The experts belong to the Climate Security Working Group-International, an international forum of security experts and professionals focused on sharing information and best practices regarding the international security risks of climate change, and developing policies for addressing those risks.

Ministers and senior officials responsible for health and environment have committed to reducing the annual 12.6 million deaths caused by environmental pollution.

Gathering at the COP22 climate meeting in Marrakech, over two dozen high level officials from both sectors signed up to the Declaration for Health, Environment and Climate Change. The goal is to reduce pollution-related deaths via a new global initiative to promote better management of environmental and climate risks to health.

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that some 12.6 million deaths a year are associated with environmental pollution. Of these, an estimated 6.5 million deaths (11.6 per cent of all global deaths) are associated with air pollution, from household and outdoor sources.

"This landmark declaration has raised consensus for better articulation of our efforts to find a solution to the major health, environmental and climate challenges. Together, we commit to ensuring that people – their livelihoods, well-being, and particularly their health – are at the centre of the response to climate change," said Ms Hakima El Haite, Minister of Environment, Morocco.

The declaration encourages the health and environment sectors to exchange experiences, technical expertise and best practices to enhance health and protect the environment. Global and comprehensive links between these two sectors does not yet exist.

Most environmental pollution-related deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries. However, outdoor air pollution remains prevalent in high-income countries as well, with 9 out of 10 people worldwide exposed to air pollution that exceeds WHO Air Quality guidelines for fine particulate matter.
Ninety-four percent of outdoor air pollution deaths are due to noncommunicable diseases – notably cardiovascular diseases, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung cancer. Air pollution also increases the risk for acute respiratory infections. Indoor air pollution in particular causes about half of all childhood pneumonia deaths (about 530,000 childhood deaths in 2012).

Major sources of air pollution include inefficient modes of transport, household fuel and waste burning, coal-fired power plants, and industrial activities.
Prof Judi Wakhungu, Kenya's Cabinet Secretary for Environment and her Water counterpart Eugene Wamalwa expressed Government's commitment to addressing effects of climate change.

"The Government has invested heavily in the health sector and environment to reduce deaths related with effects of climate change," Wakhungu said.
Wamalwa said his ministry is keen on providing clean water to all Kenyans to reduce water-borne related diseases.

According to WHO, hundreds of thousands more deaths each year are due to direct climate change impacts including heat waves, extreme weather emergencies, drought, and increased diarrhoeal disease and vector borne disease transmission. And these deaths are projected to rise if climate change is not addressed.

"We know that most health risks from climate change are preventable. By establishing this initiative we can work together on strengthening health systems, investing in disease prevention, and common-sense measures such as improving water and sanitation systems, and infectious disease surveillance. This will save lives now and protect us from escalating climate risks," said Dr El Houssaine Louardi, Minister of Health, Morocco.

The Declaration recognizes that well designed policies to protect the environment will result in reducing the global burden of disease attributable to the environment, as well as reducing the rising rate of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), such as stroke, heart disease, cancers and chronic respiratory diseases. NCDs account for nearly two-thirds – or 8.2 million – of deaths associated with unhealthy environments.

"The devastating consequences of air pollution affect both the climate and health. They are seen everywhere from smog-encircled mega-cities to village dwellings filled with smoke from indoor cooking. Yet virtually all air pollution is man-made – and often excessive," said Dr Margaret Chan, WHO Director-General. "By working together, across sectors, and with partners, we can help ensure that people – their livelihoods, well-being, and particularly their health – are at the centre of the response to climate change."

"Rather than focusing solely on the cure, we need more integrated policies, solutions and measures that prevent environmental degradation and the health problems they cause. For this we need the environment and health communities to come together. We need to translate global agreements into measures that have a tangible, positive impact on people's lives," said Erik Solheim, head of UN Environment.

"We have the solutions and they are within reach, but we need to see greater political will for positive change to materialize. The coalition that has been called for today offers an important and timely opportunity to catalyse change across multiple sectors, from energy, transport, housing and agriculture to economic policy and planning."
The health and environment agencies are also linking together in a new campaign, BreatheLife, to raise awareness about air pollution, climate and health impacts as well as promote climate solutions beneficial to health.